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Artigos

Artigos

Sentiment and the Real Economy

Sentiment and the Real Economy Thomas I. Barkin President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond New York Association for Business Economics New York, New York May 15, 2019 Good afternoon. Thank you very much for inviting me to speak with you
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Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities

July 12, 2022 Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities1 Andrea Ajello, Luca Benzoni, Makena Schwinn, Yannick Timmer, and Francisco Vazquez-Grande Introduction An inverted yield curve—defined as an episode in which long-maturity Treasury yields fall below their short-maturity counterparts—is a powerful near-term
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human
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Why Use a Diffusion Index?

Diffusion indexes are a useful way to summarize economic information from surveys because they are easy to understand and correlate well with economic activity over time. To use diffusion indexes most effectively as a measure of change, however, it is
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The Recession Question

June 21, 2022 Tom Barkin President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Risk Management Association – RVA Chapter Triple Crossing Highlights: Inflation is too high. But the Fed has the tools to contain inflation over the medium-term, and we are committed
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Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment

Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment Brandyn Bok and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of
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Olhando o Futuro

COM O “NOVO NORMAL”,  PRECISAMOS DE UM BRASIL ADOLESCENTE! O que você enxerga olhando para o futuro ? A chegada do COVID-19 representou e ainda representa um desafio global com relação à forma como os governos, as empresas e os
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Nem Verde Nem Vermelho

Nem Bolsonaro nem Lula! Em 24 horas, vimos ambos os extremos da manifestação democrática dos últimos 20 (vinte) anos mais preocupados com o poder, satirizando e  ironizando a  pandemia para defender seus respectivos pontos de venda, ops, vista, passando por
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Sentiment and the Real Economy

Sentiment and the Real Economy Thomas I. Barkin President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond New York Association for Business Economics New York, New York May 15, 2019 Good afternoon. Thank you very much for inviting me to speak with you

Monetary Policy in a World of Conflicting Data

July 14, 2022 Governor Christopher J. Waller At Rocky Mountain Economic Summit Global Interdependence Center, Victor, Idaho Thank you, Mike, and thank you to the Global Interdependence Center for the invitation to speak to you today.1 Let me start at the

Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities

July 12, 2022 Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities1 Andrea Ajello, Luca Benzoni, Makena Schwinn, Yannick Timmer, and Francisco Vazquez-Grande Introduction An inverted yield curve—defined as an episode in which long-maturity Treasury yields fall below their short-maturity counterparts—is a powerful near-term

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human

Why Use a Diffusion Index?

Diffusion indexes are a useful way to summarize economic information from surveys because they are easy to understand and correlate well with economic activity over time. To use diffusion indexes most effectively as a measure of change, however, it is

The Recession Question

June 21, 2022 Tom Barkin President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Risk Management Association – RVA Chapter Triple Crossing Highlights: Inflation is too high. But the Fed has the tools to contain inflation over the medium-term, and we are committed

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022 Marco Del Negro, Aidan Gleich, Shlok Goyal, Alissa Johnson, and Andrea Tambalotti This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic

Lessons Learned on Normalizing Monetary Policy

Governor Christopher J. Waller At “Monetary Policy at a Crossroads,” a panel discussion hosted by the Dallas Society for Computational Economics, Dallas, Texas Thank you, Meredith and Cullum and thank you to the Society for the invitation to speak to

Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation

Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation Kevin J. Lansing How much persistent versus transitory forces contribute to inflation influences the Federal Reserve’s ability to achieve its goal of 2% average inflation over time. If elevated inflation is driven mainly

Unbanked in America: A Review of the Literature

Introduction In 2019, 5.4 percent of US households were unbanked, meaning that no one in the household had a checking or savings account at a bank or credit union (FDIC 2020).1 The likelihood of being unbanked was even higher for some

Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment

Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment Brandyn Bok and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of