Sentiment and the Real Economy Thomas I. Barkin President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond New York Association for Business Economics New York, New York May 15, 2019 Good afternoon. Thank you very much for inviting me to speak with you today. Your list of past speakers reads like an economics hall of fame, but I […]
June 14–15, 2022 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, June 14, 2022, at 11:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, June 15, 2022, at 9:00 a.m.1 Attendance Jerome H. Powell, Chair […]
July 14, 2022 Governor Christopher J. Waller At Rocky Mountain Economic Summit Global Interdependence Center, Victor, Idaho Thank you, Mike, and thank you to the Global Interdependence Center for the invitation to speak to you today.1 Let me start at the place that all remarks about U.S. monetary policy should start, which is with the Federal […]
July 12, 2022 Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities1 Andrea Ajello, Luca Benzoni, Makena Schwinn, Yannick Timmer, and Francisco Vazquez-Grande Introduction An inverted yield curve—defined as an episode in which long-maturity Treasury yields fall below their short-maturity counterparts—is a powerful near-term predictor of recessions.2 While most previous studies focus on the predictive power of the spread between […]
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty. The Committee is highly attentive […]
Diffusion indexes are a useful way to summarize economic information from surveys because they are easy to understand and correlate well with economic activity over time. To use diffusion indexes most effectively as a measure of change, however, it is important that the extensive margin of the indicator in question explains more of the change […]
Minutes of the 252nd Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) Banco Central do Brasil A) Update of economic outlook and Copom’s scenario1 1. The global environment continues to be marked by prospects of below-potential global growth for next year. The easing of the COVID policy in China, a milder winter in Europe, and the […]
June 21, 2022 Tom Barkin President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Risk Management Association – RVA Chapter Triple Crossing Highlights: Inflation is too high. But the Fed has the tools to contain inflation over the medium-term, and we are committed to returning inflation to our target. The elevated concern about a recession is understandable. But […]
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022 Marco Del Negro, Aidan Gleich, Shlok Goyal, Alissa Johnson, and Andrea Tambalotti This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March […]
Governor Christopher J. Waller At “Monetary Policy at a Crossroads,” a panel discussion hosted by the Dallas Society for Computational Economics, Dallas, Texas Thank you, Meredith and Cullum and thank you to the Society for the invitation to speak to you today. This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took another significant step toward […]