July 14, 2022 Governor Christopher J. Waller At Rocky Mountain Economic Summit Global Interdependence Center, Victor, Idaho Thank you, Mike, and thank you to the Global Interdependence Center for the invitation to speak to you today.1 Let me start at the place that all remarks about U.S. monetary policy should start, which is with the Federal […]
July 12, 2022 Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities1 Andrea Ajello, Luca Benzoni, Makena Schwinn, Yannick Timmer, and Francisco Vazquez-Grande Introduction An inverted yield curve—defined as an episode in which long-maturity Treasury yields fall below their short-maturity counterparts—is a powerful near-term predictor of recessions.2 While most previous studies focus on the predictive power of the spread between […]
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty. The Committee is highly attentive […]
Diffusion indexes are a useful way to summarize economic information from surveys because they are easy to understand and correlate well with economic activity over time. To use diffusion indexes most effectively as a measure of change, however, it is important that the extensive margin of the indicator in question explains more of the change […]
June 21, 2022 Tom Barkin President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Risk Management Association – RVA Chapter Triple Crossing Highlights: Inflation is too high. But the Fed has the tools to contain inflation over the medium-term, and we are committed to returning inflation to our target. The elevated concern about a recession is understandable. But […]
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022 Marco Del Negro, Aidan Gleich, Shlok Goyal, Alissa Johnson, and Andrea Tambalotti This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March […]
Governor Christopher J. Waller At “Monetary Policy at a Crossroads,” a panel discussion hosted by the Dallas Society for Computational Economics, Dallas, Texas Thank you, Meredith and Cullum and thank you to the Society for the invitation to speak to you today. This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took another significant step toward […]
Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation Kevin J. Lansing How much persistent versus transitory forces contribute to inflation influences the Federal Reserve’s ability to achieve its goal of 2% average inflation over time. If elevated inflation is driven mainly by persistent shocks, then a stronger and longer-lasting policy response is likely to be needed […]
Introduction In 2019, 5.4 percent of US households were unbanked, meaning that no one in the household had a checking or savings account at a bank or credit union (FDIC 2020).1 The likelihood of being unbanked was even higher for some segments of the population, such as low-income and racial and ethnic minority households.2 As shown in […]
Digital Assets and the Future of Finance: Examining the Benefits and Risks of a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency Vice Chair Lael Brainard Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C. Chairwoman Waters, Ranking Member McHenry, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to join you today. With technology […]